The architectural coatings market is the largest segment of the paint and coatings field. MarketsandMarkets places the size of the architectural coatings segment at $85 billion in 2023, growing to $102.7 billion in 2028. Coherent Market Insights estimates the global market to be approximately $83 billion in 2025, growing to $125 billion by 2032.

In speaking with architectural coatings industry leaders, the market was mixed in 2025, as a range of economic factors have caused people to look away from building new homes. 

Emily Kantz, Sherwin-Williams’ color marketing manager, said that across the industry, Sherwin-Williams is seeing homeowners choosing to renew rather than relocate. 

“With higher interest rates and a tight housing market, many people are investing in budget-friendly renovations, refreshes, and strategic updates to elevate their existing spaces,” Kantz observed. “Paint continues to be one of the most cost-effective tools to make a home feel brand new, which is why DIY activity remains high. Homeowners can fully transform a space with small changes like adding a bold accent wall, a splash of color to cabinetry, a quick trim refresh
and more.”

Dennis Karnstein, president and general manager of commercial, Pittsburgh Paints Company, reported that the architectural coatings market has experienced consecutive years of market decline, and this past year was no exception. 

“With increased economic uncertainty, we saw DIY painting continue toward a downward trend as buyers became more price-conscious, opting for lower-quality products to save on costs,” added Karnstein. “Despite macro uncertainty, consumers are looking to protect their costly assets such as decks, fences and sheds, and are turning to pros to remove project risk and preserve their bigger investments. We anticipate the market to start to rebound following the 2025 decline and are supporting our customers with the best services, quality, and product performance to leverage this projected growth.” 

Harriette Martins-Szilvasi, SVP, marketing at Benjamin Moore, observed that several economic factors, including overall economic uncertainty, lower homebuilder sentiment, and slow movement in the remodeling market, have impacted the home improvement and architectural coatings categories throughout 2025. 

“Pressures on the housing market, including high mortgage rates, low housing turnover and inflation, result in declining paint demand,” Martins-Szilvasi noted. “The weather also plays a crucial role in exterior paint sales and has softened the market this year as conditions continued longer than expected.”

Kayla Kratz, senior director of color & design strategy at Behr Paint, said that the market has remained resilient because the home has become a sanctuary rather than a transient investment. 

“We’ve seen homeowners move away from ‘quick flips’ toward high-quality, durable finishes – like our BEHR DYNASTY line – that reflect a desire for longevity and sustainable beauty in their personal spaces,” added Kratz. 

“The market grew but at a slow pace, it started slow but picked up in Q3,” said Karine Galla, director, product management for Sto Corp. “Growth came especially from the renovation market. Sales of water-based and eco-friendly coatings are outpacing other chemistries such as solvent-based due to regulatory and environmental pressures.” 

AkzoNobel executives report that the architectural coatings market performed solidly and with moderate growth in 2025, despite challenges in the global construction sector and an increasing demand for more sustainable building materials. 

“Growth patterns varied across regions, influenced by factors such as urbanization, rising disposable incomes and evolving architectural trends that prioritized aesthetics and durability,” AkzoNobel’s spokesperson added. “Disruptions in the supply chain due to raw material shortages that affected the market earlier have largely eased, stabilizing supply.” 

AkzoNobel’s official says that the market’s emphasis on sustainability and energy efficiency drove greater adoption of more sustainable and low-VOC solutions, including powder coatings. 

“In the Asia-Pacific region, rapid urbanization, infrastructure investments and construction activity in countries such as India fueled significant growth,” they observed. “There was a major slowdown in China’s real estate sector, but the recovery is expected here. In contrast, North America and Western Europe experienced stable and modest growth, due to high interest rates and a cooling of new construction projects.

“Globally, the slowdown in new-build projects shifted attention to renovation in the private, institutional and commercial building industry and refurbishment, spurring demand for premium, more sustainable coatings,” AkzoNobel added. “Labor shortages in several regions further increased the need for high-performance products that simplify application and reduce downtime. Despite an uneven recovery in construction, the architectural coatings market remained resilient, supported by a strategic focus on sustainability, digitalization and customer-centric solutions. These factors helped stabilize performance and position the industry for future growth, which means the outlook is
cautiously optimistic.”

Key Trends in Architectural Coatings

There are a number of trends in the architectural coatings market, beginning with concerns over affordability and a decline in first-time home buyers.

“Though inventory has slightly increased, first-time home buyers are declining, prospective buyers are cautiously awaiting lower mortgage rates, and we are seeing consumers staying put in existing homes longer,” Martins-Szilvasi noted. “Coupled with inflation and tariffs increasing costs for goods and services, consumers are pausing on renovations or larger remodeling projects, holding back on spending discretionary funds.”

Kratz said that Behr Paint is seeing consumers choose to renovate and refresh their current homes rather than move, often turning to DIY projects to add a personal touch. 

“Fixer-uppers are also gaining popularity as an entry point, giving homeowners the opportunity to transform spaces from the ground up,” Kratz noted. “Overall, there’s a clear shift toward hands-on, design-driven updates instead of purchasing new homes.” 

Kratz also pointed out that performance is becoming a key priority as homeowners and professionals look for coatings that will deliver beyond providing a trendy color. She said that beyond aesthetics, consumers are prioritizing value and ROI more than ever when choosing paint. 

“People are thinking carefully about the time and money they put into their homes, and they expect paint to pull its weight,” said Kratz. “It needs to make the job easier and hold up to everyday life. There is increasing demand for durable, high-functioning solutions such as products that resist scuffs, block stains, help prevent mildew, and stand up to high-traffic or high-moisture environments. BEHR MARQUEE is an example of a product that aligns with this consumer shift as its one-coat hide and long-lasting durability help people get projects done faster without giving up on quality over time.” 

Karnstein noted that housing affordability and economic uncertainty remain key concerns. “It takes more than lowering interest rates to significantly impact the market, so housing trends haven’t experienced much change,” Karnstein said. “We anticipate some recovery to start next year, driven by return-to-office mandates, pent-up demand for some to move from homes they deem unsatisfactory, and continued builder incentives reducing costs to get in a new home. We anticipate DIYers resuming projects they put on hold and expect to see a top-end shift in the DIY market as those who previously hired painters take their projects back on to
save costs.”

Besides aesthetics, Karnsetin said that homeowners and painting contractors are interested in eco-friendly paint that provide durable solutions. 

“There is greater demand for bio-based formulas (raw materials derived from natural resources) or paints with little to no volatile organic compounds (VOCs), as consumers try to reduce their carbon footprints and decrease their usage of ‘substances of concern’,” Karnstein added. “Painters also seek to complete their projects in less time. In response, we’ve shortened the drying time of our paints and stains, invested in product innovations that improve the ease of application, and reduced the number of coats needed to help our customers save time and money. We’ve enhanced our apps and visual technology for customers to select colors and access advanced technical support more easily.”

Kantz said that homeowners want paint that performs as beautifully as it looks. 

“They’re prioritizing healthier homes with low- or zero-VOC formulas and technologies that improve indoor air quality and reduce odors,” added Kantz. “Durability is also essential, as homeowners expect finishes that resist stains, scuffs, moisture, fading, and mildew so they don’t have to repaint as often. Ease of application and maintenance matters too, especially for DIYers who want reliable coverage, easy cleanup, and long-lasting results.”

Eleni Vydra, director of Hardie brand and product marketing at James Hardie, noted that homeowners are increasingly looking for materials that provide long-lasting beauty for their home while also being low maintenance. 

“Hardie fiber cement siding and trim products are incredibly durable and low maintenance, so homeowners can spend more time enjoying their home, while having the peace of mind that what they’ve built will endure,” said Vydra. “Sustainability is becoming more and more important to homeowners as well. At James Hardie, we are setting ambitious goals as responsible stewards around reducing emissions, minimizing waste, and saving water.” 

AkzoNobel sees a few key trends happening. For example, more than 80% of the buildings that will exist in 2050 have already been built. Studies say that many of these structures are inefficient, unhealthy and increasingly exposed to climate risks. This presents a critical challenge – how to manage and adapt the existing built environment in a way that reduces emissions, protects communities and prepares for a rapidly changing climate.

“Drawing on economic, environmental and social dimensions, we show how retrofitting existing buildings can extend asset life, reduce operational costs and mitigate regulatory and climate risks through improved energy performance, lower embodied carbon and reduced construction waste,” AkzoNobel’s official said. “The key consideration here is the reduction of embodied carbon footprint over the whole lifecycle of a building, and we’re seeing a shift towards stakeholders prioritizing longer-lasting solutions. We’re also seeing more focus on using wood as a more sustainable building material due to its negative carbon footprint versus other traditional building materials, such as steel and concrete.

“A notable trend sweeping through the renovation scene is the upgrade of older buildings with double or even triple glazing solutions,” AkzoNobel added. “But it’s not just about swapping out the glass – these advanced panes require brand new window frames as well. This essential step is fueling ongoing growth for our business.”

New Products and the Environment

Environmentally friendly products are becoming more popular with consumers, and some of the latest paint and coatings developments are centered on “green” paints.

“This year, Benjamin Moore introduced the next generation of Eco Spec – our greenest and lowest odor paint,” said Martins-Szilvasi. “Thoughtfully crafted for sensitive environments, including patient rooms, offices, guest rooms and schools, as well as residential spaces, Eco Spec achieves beautiful results with zero VOCs and zero emissions, even after tinting. It also features a low odor that completely dissipates within an hour after application, so that spaces painted with Eco Spec can be reoccupied sooner, providing minimal disruption and fast return to space for residential or commercial spaces.”

“Sustainability remains a core focus here at Behr,” Kratz noted. “While a new product, BEHR PREMIUM PLUS ECOMIX Paint & Primer is a significant step in BEHR Paint Company’s ongoing commitment to continuously seek ways to innovate and develop products that are better for both people and the planet. BEHR PREMIUM PLUS ECOMIX Paint & Primer is the first 100% all-acrylic paint with USDA Certified bio-based content that contains the 20% minimum threshold of renewable materials set by USDA for the interior paints and coatings category – all while delivering the same durability and quality as BEHR Paint Company’s flagship BEHR PREMIUM PLUS Interior paint line.” Kratz adds that the 20% minimum threshold has been verified through third party lab testing in accordance with ASTM D6866.

“With an extensive product portfolio like we have at Sherwin-Williams, we’re proud to have a product for every need. For example, our SuperPaint with Air Purifying Technology, a zero VOC formula, helps create healthier indoor environments by actually reducing VOCs in the room and breaking down common household odors,” said Kantz.

Ease of use is also a key goal. 

“We’ve been heavily focused on product innovation in ease of application, performance, and sustainability,” said Karnstein. “We recently launched PITTSBURGH PAINTS ANTI-SCUFF Interior Zero VOC paint, which delivers unrivaled scuff resistance for high-traffic areas in commercial and residential spaces. Delivering a smooth application and finish, high-hiding, and great coverage, it also requires less product and reworking, cutting dry time by 30%.” 

“For exteriors, our Emerald Rain Refresh Exterior Acrylic Latex Paint is an ultra-durable exterior coating with Self-Cleaning Technology that allows for dirt to wash away upon contact with rain or water,” said Kantz. “Going back to easy ways to renovate a home, our Gallery Series Waterborne Topcoat gives cabinets a factory-like finish, making upgrades easier without replacement.”

“Our StoColor Acryl Plus family of products offers high UV resistance and our StoColor Lo-tusan is the industry standard for self-cleaning and super hydrophobic coating,” said Galla. “Both product lines offer top-of-the-line performance.”

Growth in 2026

Industry leaders are expecting to see growth in the market during 2026, but that remains uncertain. Sto Corp.’s Galla said that the market forecast calls for moderate growth in 2026 driven by renovation, construction activity and product innovation.

“We’re seeing continued opportunities for home updates and renovations in 2026, with homeowners and designers focusing on personalizing spaces and incorporating new DIY projects,” said Behr Paint’s Kratz. “This momentum is being shaped by growing interest in sustainable products and the powerful role of color and design trends in creating inspiring, functional spaces. BEHR remains a go-to choice, offering innovative coatings, on-trend colors, and the quality needed to bring design visions to life.” 

“Initial industry projections anticipated growth, but as the year continued, forecasts across the industry have been readjusted to account for potential retraction in the market,” said Martins-Szilvasi. “As the macroeconomy turns around and economic uncertainty settles, we believe we are positioned for growth.” 

AkzoNobel officials expect the architectural coatings market to show modest growth going forward, influenced by regional differences and evolving customer priorities. 

“In developed regions, the market is likely to remain stable due to its maturity, while developing economies with growing populations and expanding infrastructure will present greater opportunities for growth,” added AkzoNobel. “This growth will be supported by increasing demand for more sustainable solutions. 

“For example, our Interpon D powder coatings offer significant sustainability advantages for customers,” AkzoNobel’s spokesperson continued. “They include Interpon D2525 Terracotta and the ranges that mimic natural resources such as stone, metals and wood. In Europe, most of our special color collections are either Low-E (which means they can be cured at a lower temperature or at a higher line speed), or they’re made with bio-attributed materials. In both cases, the powder coatings support a lower carbon footprint.”

Karnstein pointed out that up and down cycles are typical in the architectural coatings industry. 

“This down cycle was longer, following a surge in remodeling around the pandemic,” added Karnstein. “After several consecutive years of decline, we’re starting to see mild growth, which we anticipate will pick up in the second half of 2026 and accelerate into 2027 and 2028. Population growth, underbuilt housing, and deferred remodeling signal a long growth cycle on the horizon. We’re investing in innovative products, new digital systems, and support from our sales teams to help pros grow their businesses. We’ve got big plans and are strategically positioned for what’s to come.” CW